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Wednesday, 4 June 2014

What technology I think we will see in the next 10 years or so?




Technology is moving forward so rapidly that it is almost impossible to predict what is going to happen in the next couple of years never mind next 10 years. I will try to predict some of the key developments we are likely to see in the next 10 years or so. I don’t think it is possible to mention all the developments as it could take a couple of book chapters but I will mention some that come across my mind. You can feel free to add your suggestions in the comment section below.

Cloud Computing



This is already becoming mainstream with large corporations such as Amazon, Microsoft, IBM, Google, offering endless space to the businesses for the right amount of money. We will see more businesses moving their documents and content into the cloud. It reduces cost and offers great flexibility and accessibility from everywhere where is internet connection available. Same story with consumers or individuals. Many cloud companies are already attracting people with cheap deals to store data on their servers with ability to access files from almost any device, everywhere.  We will see Windows and others operating systems being more cloud integrated. Microsoft is already considering developing completely cloud Windows operating system. First step would be offering online backup which is already happening and the second moving everything and running completely everything in real time from the cloud. Ultra fast 1Gbps and faster internet would allow this to happen. Physical storage such as hard drives, optical discs are likely to become obsolete. But this process is likely to take slightly more than a decade.

4G becoming mainstream, first 5G networks and 1Gbps+ home broadband



I have read somewhere that there are more portable, mobile devices in the world than toothbrushes. Only about ¼ of people in the world have ever used/are using internet and more people are about to join. Financial well-being of many developing countries is improving and private companies are putting their efforts to connect people to the internet using satellite or mobile technology. More users means more profit for companies such as Google that make most of their money via advertisement – if more people use their services and view adverts that means more income. This also means more bandwidth will be used. To handle all that, more capacity will be introduced. In the mobile world this would mean 4G becoming mainstream with future revisions being made to it to offer more capacity and speed and first signs of 5G will appear in early 2020s. Home users will see their home broadband reaching speeds 1Gbps or above. Music and Video content streaming will become even more popular and there will be a decrease in people watching live TV, content on demand is likely to grow.

Connected Smart Homes



In the near future, more devices will be connected at home. Smart devices, sensors are already starting to emerge. These will be used to monitor everything from electricity used, heating, temperature, door locks, lighting, entertainment and so on. These will always be connected to the internet using your own Wi-Fi network, 4G or Bluetooth. There will be an option to change all settings, variables by using your smartphone or by using any other mobile devices such as smartwatches or smartglasses, regardless of your locations as long as you are connected to the internet. Large corporations such as Apple and Google are already developing their software and partnerships with hardware manufacturers to bring this experience to you and of course make extra money out of this.

Connected Cars, Self Driving and Hybrid Electrical Vehicles



All three technologies are likely to develop further in the future. Some faster, some much longer. The first step would be having your car connected to the internet all the time. Cars will become like smartphones with their own software and ability to preload and utilize wide range of apps anytime, everywhere. Sounds good, but I fear poor rural, road mobile coverage could ruin all this.  Perhaps alternative technologies will be used as a backup in hard to reach areas such as satellites. We can also expect to see more hybrid or completely electrical cars on the road. I assume that battery technology and efficiency should improve significantly in the next 10 years which should reduce overall price of the vehicle.  I expect more charging stations to be built or created across the globe to fuel the demand. But I do not expect electrical cars becoming mainstream that soon. Another large step could become autonomous vehicles or self driving cars. Google is already announced and planning to release consumer self driving car by the end of this decade and I am expecting more to appear in the next decade or so. But I do not see these completely replacing human controlled cars in the near future. I think this could take up to couple of decades or even half a century to become something everyday norm. This will be something that is gradually being introduced. There are many issues to consider with this technology such as infrastructure, legislation and human factor.


Wearable devices, ultrathin and flexible devices



I’m not particularly convinced that smartwatches, smartglasses and similar wearable devices will dominate our lives and the market anytime soon but a lot of sources say this could be the next big thing. Google will release first consumer version of smartglasses in 2015 and other companies will follow. A lot of people likely to buy these but only time will show how popular wearable devices could become. One thing is clear - any mobile, portable, wearable device will become ultrathin, flexible, foldable and in some cases transparent. Also we could expect to see holographic projection technologies being integrated on smartphones and possibly other devices. This is when you would project what is on the screen of the device on the wall or in the air, just like in science fiction movies. I just hope that somebody ever could improve a battery life. This has been an issue for many years…

3D Printing



Simple 3D Printers to create prototypes are already available to general public and can already be bought for around 1000 USD. A couple thousand more and you can print objects size of the basketball. Today, almost everything using almost any material can be printed by using 3D printers, from a complete ready houses, rocket engines to human body parts, organs and even blood vessels, although such 3D printer would cost you millions and technology on this is still developing. But ability to print simple small to medium size objects using plastic or metal likely to become everyday’s norm. Buy a 3D printer, design your own object using software and print it.  I assume that you will be able to create your own food with it as well. There are some ethical issues with 3D printing as for example weapons and guns can be printed out using 3D printer technology. As a result I assume that in the future every 3D printed item will have some sort of identifier, barcode on it to have an ability to trace where this item was printed.


Other…



I have got a feeling that optical discs such as CD’s and DVD’s etc and printed newspapers and books could disappear almost completely by the middle of next decade if not earlier. All this likely will be replaced with digital content which can then be accessed from the cloud. We could expect more automation in the next decade or so but I do not expect robots competing for jobs with humans any time soon. But we may start to see robots emerging into our daily lives as helpers or assistants for a start. Robots will of course become more sophisticated in the future. But it is very difficult to predict any timeframes at the moment.




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