Technology
is moving forward so rapidly that it is almost impossible to predict what is
going to happen in the next couple of years never mind next 10 years. I will
try to predict some of the key developments we are likely to see in the next 10
years or so. I don’t think it is possible to mention all the developments as it
could take a couple of book chapters but I will mention some that come across
my mind. You can feel free to add your suggestions in the comment section
below.
This is
already becoming mainstream with large corporations such as Amazon, Microsoft,
IBM, Google, offering endless space to the businesses for the right amount of
money. We will see more businesses moving their documents and content into the
cloud. It reduces cost and offers great flexibility and accessibility from
everywhere where is internet connection available. Same story with consumers or
individuals. Many cloud companies are already attracting people with cheap
deals to store data on their servers with ability to access files from almost
any device, everywhere. We will see
Windows and others operating systems being more cloud integrated. Microsoft is
already considering developing completely cloud Windows operating system. First
step would be offering online backup which is already happening and the second
moving everything and running completely everything in real time from the
cloud. Ultra fast 1Gbps and faster internet would allow this to happen.
Physical storage such as hard drives, optical discs are likely to become
obsolete. But this process is likely to take slightly more than a decade.
4G becoming mainstream,
first 5G networks and 1Gbps+ home broadband
I have read
somewhere that there are more portable, mobile devices in the world than
toothbrushes. Only about ¼ of people in the world have ever used/are using
internet and more people are about to join. Financial well-being of many
developing countries is improving and private companies are putting their
efforts to connect people to the internet using satellite or mobile technology.
More users means more profit for companies such as Google that make most of their
money via advertisement – if more people use their services and view adverts that
means more income. This also means more bandwidth will be used. To handle all
that, more capacity will be introduced. In the mobile world this would mean 4G
becoming mainstream with future revisions being made to it to offer more
capacity and speed and first signs of 5G will appear in early 2020s. Home users
will see their home broadband reaching speeds 1Gbps or above. Music and Video
content streaming will become even more popular and there will be a decrease in
people watching live TV, content on demand is likely to grow.
In the near
future, more devices will be connected at home. Smart devices, sensors are already
starting to emerge. These will be used to monitor everything from electricity
used, heating, temperature, door locks, lighting, entertainment and so on. These
will always be connected to the internet using your own Wi-Fi network, 4G or
Bluetooth. There will be an option to change all settings, variables by using
your smartphone or by using any other mobile devices such as smartwatches or smartglasses,
regardless of your locations as long as you are connected to the internet. Large
corporations such as Apple and Google are already developing their software and
partnerships with hardware manufacturers to bring this experience to you and of
course make extra money out of this.
Connected Cars, Self
Driving and Hybrid Electrical Vehicles
All three
technologies are likely to develop further in the future. Some faster, some
much longer. The first step would be having your car connected to the internet
all the time. Cars will become like smartphones with their own software and
ability to preload and utilize wide range of apps anytime, everywhere. Sounds
good, but I fear poor rural, road mobile coverage could ruin all this. Perhaps alternative technologies will be used
as a backup in hard to reach areas such as satellites. We can also expect to
see more hybrid or completely electrical cars on the road. I assume that battery
technology and efficiency should improve significantly in the next 10 years
which should reduce overall price of the vehicle. I expect more charging stations to be built or
created across the globe to fuel the demand. But I do not expect electrical cars
becoming mainstream that soon. Another large step could become autonomous
vehicles or self driving cars. Google is already announced and planning to
release consumer self driving car by the end of this decade and I am expecting
more to appear in the next decade or so. But I do not see these completely
replacing human controlled cars in the near future. I think this could take up
to couple of decades or even half a century to become something everyday norm. This
will be something that is gradually being introduced. There are many issues to
consider with this technology such as infrastructure, legislation and human
factor.
Wearable devices,
ultrathin and flexible devices
I’m not particularly
convinced that smartwatches, smartglasses and similar wearable devices will
dominate our lives and the market anytime soon but a lot of sources say this could
be the next big thing. Google will release first consumer version of smartglasses
in 2015 and other companies will follow. A lot of people likely to buy these
but only time will show how popular wearable devices could become. One thing is
clear - any mobile, portable, wearable device will become ultrathin, flexible,
foldable and in some cases transparent. Also we could expect to see holographic projection technologies being integrated on smartphones and possibly other devices. This is when you would project what is on the screen of the device on the wall or in the air, just like in science fiction movies. I just hope that somebody ever could
improve a battery life. This has been an issue for many years…
Simple 3D
Printers to create prototypes are already available to general public and can
already be bought for around 1000 USD. A couple thousand more and you can print
objects size of the basketball. Today, almost everything using almost any
material can be printed by using 3D printers, from a complete ready houses, rocket
engines to human body parts, organs and even blood vessels, although such 3D
printer would cost you millions and technology on this is still developing. But
ability to print simple small to medium size objects using plastic or metal
likely to become everyday’s norm. Buy a 3D printer, design your own object using
software and print it. I assume that you
will be able to create your own food with it as well. There are some ethical
issues with 3D printing as for example weapons and guns can be printed out
using 3D printer technology. As a result I assume that in the future every 3D printed
item will have some sort of identifier, barcode on it to have an ability to
trace where this item was printed.
I have got a
feeling that optical discs such as CD’s and DVD’s etc and printed newspapers
and books could disappear almost completely by the middle of next decade if not
earlier. All this likely will be replaced with digital content which can then
be accessed from the cloud. We could expect more automation in the next decade
or so but I do not expect robots competing for jobs with humans any time soon. But
we may start to see robots emerging into our daily lives as helpers or
assistants for a start. Robots will of course become more sophisticated in the
future. But it is very difficult to predict any timeframes at the moment.